OpenAI and Anthropic Will Control 35% of Compute

This Week

Scanned: 284 episodes across 181 shows. Surfaced: 32 threads.

The Forecast

OpenAI and Anthropic to Control 35% of Global Compute in Two Years

A massive consolidation of computing power is coming, according to Greg Jensen of Bridgewater Associates. Speaking on Odd Lots, Jensen argued that based on his firm's numbers, just two companies—OpenAI and Anthropic—will command 35% of the world's compute capacity within a couple of years. He also noted that other credible analyses put the number even higher, at 50%.

I think 35% of the world's compute will be in the hands of OpenAI and Anthropic in a couple years.— Greg Jensen, Odd Lots

The theme of extreme compute concentration was a significant topic, appearing in discussions across 11 distinct shows this week.

What would prove it: A verifiable analysis around September 2028 showing that OpenAI and Anthropic's combined share of global compute capacity has reached or surpassed the 35% mark.

The Rundown

① The perceived optionality of AI carries hidden strategic costs.

Matt Hedberg on Run the Numbers argued that keeping AI model choices open isn't free, as each deferred decision creates real costs not found on a P&L.

→ What to watch: How leaders balance the tactical appeal of model flexibility against the strategic cost of indecision, a gap seen as only 25% of firms scale AI strategically.

② An AI researcher's grim forecast sparks a debate on existential risk.

On AI Breakdown, Matt Rogers covered the stir caused by an Anthropic researcher who estimated a "less than 10%" probability of AI-driven human extinction within the next decade.

→ What to watch: Whether this insider candor from a top lab forces a more public and honest conversation about AI alignment and safety protocols.

③ US corporate earnings are breaking out of a 90-year channel.

Michael Batnick on The Compound and Friends highlighted a Deutsche Bank report showing US earnings have broken out of a 90-year upward trend, an incredible development.

→ What to watch: If this surge is a sustainable new paradigm or a temporary, AI-fueled anomaly before an eventual reversion to the mean.

④ The 10-year bond yield is climbing toward 5%.

Katie Martin on Unhedged flagged that the 10-year Treasury yield is making a significant move toward 5%, jumping eight basis points in a single day.

→ What to watch: The ripple effects on equity valuations and mortgage rates as the so-called "risk-free" rate continues its determined ascent.

For You

If you're an Investor → In a thread across 9 podcasts, the rising cost of the AI supply chain was a key theme, with Heath Terry on Bloomberg Surveillance explaining how more expensive inference and memory translate to higher margins and stock prices for key suppliers. Investors should look beyond the model-makers to the picks-and-shovels plays, as the entire ecosystem is being repriced for higher, more durable growth.

If you're a Founder → Across 3 shows, the theme of hyper-growth in AI emerged, with Chris McDonough on The GTMnow Podcast sharing how his company went from 800K to $30 million in revenue in about 100 days. For founders, this signals that in the current market, the right product-market fit isn't just about steady growth; it's about being prepared for explosive, near-instantaneous scale.

If you're an Operator → A conversation spanning 3 shows this week focused on the difference between successful and failed AI adoption, with Brad Scott on Revenue Builders warning that a major red flag is when a strategic AI initiative devolves into a simple technical evaluation. Operators should ensure AI projects remain tied to board-level business outcomes, preventing them from getting siloed in IT as a technology-for-technology's-sake experiment.

If you're a Builder → Talk on 4 shows turned to the next wave of AI commerce, where Lauren Livak Gilbert on The CPG Guys noted an Adobe study's finding that agentic commerce will demand brands create 5x more data. For builders, the challenge is no longer just the model, but architecting the data pipelines and content factories needed to feed a new generation of autonomous shopping agents.

Press Play

• Run the Numbers — A sharp critique of the "keep your options open" mindset, arguing that every deferred choice has a real, if uncounted, cost. As he puts it, "...every decision that you make, you're deferring something else. And I think these carry like real cost." (Matt Hedberg) Listen →
• Hard Fork — An essential perspective on the AI gold rush, explaining why a new multi-billion-dollar data center can feel more like a speculative bubble than a benefit to the community it's built in. (Jasmine Sun) Listen →
• Bloomberg Surveillance — A clear breakdown of rising costs across the AI supply chain, connecting the price of inference, memory, and power to higher stock prices for the companies making those components. (Heath Terry) Listen →

From the Network

What else went out across the network this week.

• Velocity Meter — David Pizarro Says 'Impotence' Drives Modern Crashing Out
• CX-O — Tines Co-Founder Says AI's Wild Code Needs a Paved Path
• Growth Glider — Keith Gillispie Says Over 50% of Prospects Misdiagnose Their Needs
• Cult of Brands — GOVX’s 60/40 Split Signals the End of Performance-Only Marketing

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OpenAI and Anthropic could control 35% to 50% of the world's compute in just a few years, fundamentally reshaping the AI landscape.

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